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EFL Trophy
Huddersfield vs Liverpool U21
Tomorrow 21:00 1 day, 17 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 90.5%
why
• league PROVEN (90.0%, n=10)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 90.0% of 10 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.6%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 20/9 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.3% (n=1742)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
90.5%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
54.1%
Draw
19.1%
Away win
26.8%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 2.08 / μ 1.41
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 131 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
26.8%
|
3.73x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| Draw |
19.1%
|
5.24x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| top Home win |
54.1%
|
1.85x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Huddersfield 2.17 ppg vs Liverpool U… 1.33 ppg
Huddersfield · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
1-2
L
03 Nov · League One
1-1
D
31 Oct · League One
0-3
W
24 Oct · League One
2-1
W
20 Oct · League One
4-1
W
17 Oct · League One
0-2
W
Liverpool U21 · last 6
24 Oct · Premier League 2 Divi…
2-2
D
17 Oct · Premier League 2 Divi…
1-0
W
06 Oct · EFL Trophy
1-0
L
22 Sep · EFL Trophy
3-3
D
19 Sep · Premier League 2 Divi…
5-1
W
14 Sep · Premier League 2 Divi…
1-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.