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Zemun vs IMT Novi Beograd

Sat 07 Nov 14:00 0 minutes final 1–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 88.2%
book 1.25x · short <1.30x
why
• league OK (73.9%, n=23)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
• short price 1.25x
league track
ok · 73.9% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 53.5%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 15/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.1% (n=87)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
88.2%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Draw or Away solid (88.2%)
@ 07 Nov 10:57 · 1.25x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
11.8%
Draw
31.0%
Away win
57.2%
calibrated 07 Nov 10:57
scoring fit λ 0.75 / μ 1.74
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 285 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
57.2%
1.75x 51.9% n=285 lean lost
Draw
31.0%
3.23x 51.9% n=285 risky won
Home win
11.8%
8.45x 51.9% n=285 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Zemun 0W / 1D / 1L · momentum Zemun 0.83 ppg vs IMT Novi Be… 1.33 ppg
Zemun · last 6
07 Nov · Super Liga 1-1 D
01 Nov · Super Liga 3-0 L
24 Oct · Super Liga 1-0 W
17 Oct · Super Liga 3-0 L
11 Oct · Super Liga 0-3 L
19 Sep · Super Liga 2-2 D
IMT Novi Beograd · last 6
07 Nov · Super Liga 1-1 D
01 Nov · Super Liga 0-0 D
28 Oct · Cup 2-0 L
24 Oct · Super Liga 0-1 L
17 Oct · Super Liga 1-2 W
10 Oct · Super Liga 1-0 W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Super Liga Zemun 1-1 IMT Novi Beograd
25 Jul 26 · Super Liga IMT Novi Beograd 4-0 Zemun