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Second League
Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Montana
Today 17:00 13 hours, 36 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 91.9%
why
• league OK (70.0%, n=30)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 70.0% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 52.1%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 17/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3022)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.9%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
51.2%
Draw
23.8%
Away win
25.1%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.94 / μ 1.31
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 284 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
25.1%
|
3.99x | 52.8% n=284 | risky |
| Draw |
23.8%
|
4.21x | 52.8% n=284 | risky |
| top Home win |
51.2%
|
1.95x | 52.8% n=284 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Etar Veliko… 1.0 ppg vs Montana 0.5 ppg
Etar Veliko Tarnovo · last 6
30 Oct · Second League
0-2
W
23 Oct · Second League
2-1
L
19 Oct · Cup
2-4
L
09 Oct · Second League
2-0
W
20 Sep · Second League
2-4
L
14 Sep · Second League
4-1
L
Montana · last 6
02 Nov · Second League
1-2
L
27 Oct · Second League
1-2
W
19 Oct · Cup
2-1
L
13 Oct · Second League
2-3
L
27 Sep · Second League
2-0
L
21 Sep · Second League
0-5
L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.