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Second League
Fratria vs Sportist Svoge
Today 17:30 14 hours, 6 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 92.6%
why
• league OK (70.0%, n=30)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 70.0% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 52.1%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 18/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3022)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.6%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
63.8%
Draw
22.3%
Away win
14.0%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.91 / μ 0.77
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 284 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
14.0%
|
7.16x | 52.8% n=284 | risky |
| Draw |
22.3%
|
4.49x | 52.8% n=284 | risky |
| top Home win |
63.8%
|
1.57x | 52.8% n=284 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 4 meetings — Fratria 4W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Fratria 1.17 ppg vs Sportist Sv… 0.83 ppg
Fratria · last 6
27 Oct · Second League
1-2
L
18 Oct · Cup
1-2
L
09 Oct · Second League
2-0
L
27 Sep · Second League
3-0
W
20 Sep · Second League
1-2
W
15 Sep · Second League
1-1
D
Sportist Svoge · last 6
02 Nov · Second League
1-1
D
23 Oct · Second League
1-1
D
10 Oct · Second League
1-3
L
27 Sep · Second League
1-0
L
21 Sep · Second League
3-2
W
13 Sep · Second League
1-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
28 Feb 26 · Second League
Sportist Svoge 0-3 Fratria
23 Aug 25 · Second League
Fratria 2-1 Sportist Svoge
08 Dec 24 · Second League
Fratria 2-0 Sportist Svoge
27 Jul 24 · Second League
Sportist Svoge 0-1 Fratria