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Second League
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Yantra 2019
Today 14:30 11 hours, 6 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 89.4%
why
• league OK (70.0%, n=30)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 70.0% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 52.1%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 18/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 89.1% (n=1406)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3022)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
89.4%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
49.5%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
25.3%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.47 / μ 0.97
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 284 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
25.3%
|
3.95x | 52.8% n=284 | risky |
| Draw |
25.2%
|
3.97x | 52.8% n=284 | risky |
| top Home win |
49.5%
|
2.02x | 52.8% n=284 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Chernomorets … 0W / 4D / 1L
· momentum Chernomoret… 2.17 ppg vs Yantra 2019 1.17 ppg
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · last 6
31 Oct · Second League
1-2
W
23 Oct · Second League
1-1
D
18 Oct · Cup
0-4
L
10 Oct · Second League
0-3
W
27 Sep · Second League
2-0
W
20 Sep · Second League
2-4
W
Yantra 2019 · last 6
29 Oct · Second League
3-0
W
23 Oct · Second League
3-3
D
16 Oct · Cup
0-2
L
09 Oct · Second League
1-0
W
27 Sep · Second League
1-0
L
20 Sep · Second League
0-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
06 Dec 25 · Second League
Yantra 2019 0-0 Chernomorets 19…
02 Aug 25 · Second League
Chernomorets 19… 1-1 Yantra 2019
24 May 24 · Second League
Chernomorets 19… 2-2 Yantra 2019
02 Feb 24 · Friendlies Clubs
Chernomorets 19… 0-1 Yantra 2019
11 Nov 23 · Second League
Yantra 2019 1-1 Chernomorets 19…