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Hebar 1918 vs Marek

Sun 08 Nov 16:30 0 minutes final 3–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 76.9%
why
• league OK (70.0%, n=30)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
league track
ok · 70.0% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 52.1%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 19/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 79.7% (n=576)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
76.9%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw solid (76.9%)
@ 08 Nov 17:26
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
53.8%
Draw
23.2%
Away win
23.1%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 1.83 / μ 1.12
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 284 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
23.1%
4.33x 52.8% n=284 risky lost
Draw
23.2%
4.32x 52.8% n=284 risky lost
top Home win
53.8%
1.86x 52.8% n=284 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Hebar 1918 2W / 1D / 2L · momentum Hebar 1918 2.0 ppg vs Marek 0.83 ppg
Hebar 1918 · last 6
08 Nov · Second League 3-1 W
29 Oct · Second League 3-0 L
23 Oct · Second League 2-1 W
17 Oct · Cup 1-4 W
10 Oct · Second League 1-3 W
27 Sep · Second League 1-2 L
Marek · last 6
08 Nov · Second League 3-1 L
31 Oct · Second League 1-3 L
23 Oct · Second League 1-1 D
17 Oct · Cup 0-3 L
10 Oct · Second League 3-2 W
26 Sep · Second League 0-0 D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Second League Hebar 1918 3-1 Marek
15 May 26 · Second League Hebar 1918 1-1 Marek
16 Nov 25 · Second League Marek 2-0 Hebar 1918
14 May 22 · Second League Hebar 1918 3-0 Marek
19 Nov 21 · Second League Marek 2-0 Hebar 1918