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Second League

Ludogorets II vs Nesebar

Sun 08 Nov 16:30 0 minutes final 2–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 78.8%
book 1.31x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league OK (70.0%, n=30)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
• priced 1.31x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
ok · 70.0% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 52.1%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 17/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 79.7% (n=576)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
78.8%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw solid (78.8%)
@ 08 Nov 17:26 · 1.31x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
54.5%
Draw
24.3%
Away win
21.2%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 1.86 / μ 1.10
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 284 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
21.2%
4.71x 52.8% n=284 risky lost
Draw
24.3%
4.12x 52.8% n=284 risky lost
top Home win
54.5%
1.83x 52.8% n=284 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Ludogorets II 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Ludogorets … 1.83 ppg vs Nesebar 0.17 ppg
Ludogorets II · last 6
08 Nov · Second League 2-0 W
02 Nov · Second League 1-1 D
26 Oct · Second League 5-1 W
13 Oct · Second League 2-3 W
21 Sep · Second League 1-0 L
15 Sep · Second League 1-1 D
Nesebar · last 6
08 Nov · Second League 2-0 L
31 Oct · Second League 1-2 L
23 Oct · Second League 2-1 L
18 Oct · Cup 0-2 L
10 Oct · Second League 0-0 D
27 Sep · Second League 2-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Second League Ludogorets II 2-0 Nesebar