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2. SNL
Bilje vs Dren Vrhnika
Sat 07 Nov 01:00 0 minutes final 3–0 · settledDr
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 93.2%
why
• league OK (68.8%, n=32)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 68.8% of 32 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 51.4%)
draws 15.0% of matches
team history 17/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.2%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
51.4%
Draw
24.4%
Away win
24.1%
calibrated 07 Nov 11:05
scoring fit λ 1.87 / μ 1.23
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 362 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
24.1%
|
4.14x | 58.8% n=362 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
24.4%
|
4.09x | 58.8% n=362 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
51.4%
|
1.95x | 58.8% n=362 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Bilje 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Bilje 1.5 ppg vs Dren Vrhnika 0.17 ppg
Bilje · last 6
08 Nov · 2. SNL
3-0
W
31 Oct · 2. SNL
3-2
W
27 Oct · 2. SNL
3-0
L
23 Oct · Cup
4-3
L
17 Oct · 2. SNL
2-0
W
10 Oct · 2. SNL
5-1
L
Dren Vrhnika · last 6
08 Nov · 2. SNL
3-0
L
31 Oct · 2. SNL
1-4
L
27 Oct · 2. SNL
3-0
L
18 Oct · 2. SNL
1-2
L
10 Oct · 2. SNL
1-0
L
03 Oct · 2. SNL
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · 2. SNL
Bilje 3-0 Dren Vrhnika
Tickets including this match