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1st Division
Korabi Peshkopi vs Flamurtari
Sat 07 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 0–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 90.4%
why
• league PROVEN (84.6%, n=26)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 84.6% of 26 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 66.5%)
draws 36.7% of matches
team history 12/10 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2528)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
90.4%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
16.7%
Draw
26.5%
Away win
56.7%
calibrated 07 Nov 18:01
scoring fit λ 0.80 / μ 1.67
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 30 Oct · 248 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
56.7%
|
1.76x | 48.0% n=248 | lean | lost |
| Draw |
26.5%
|
3.77x | 48.0% n=248 | risky | won |
| Home win |
16.7%
|
5.97x | 48.0% n=248 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Korabi Peshko… 0W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Korabi Pesh… 0.83 ppg vs Flamurtari 2.17 ppg
Korabi Peshkopi · last 6
07 Nov · 1st Division
0-0
D
01 Nov · 1st Division
2-0
L
28 Oct · 1st Division
1-0
W
24 Oct · 1st Division
2-0
L
17 Oct · 1st Division
0-0
D
11 Oct · 1st Division
0-2
L
Flamurtari · last 6
07 Nov · 1st Division
0-0
D
01 Nov · 1st Division
2-0
W
28 Oct · 1st Division
2-1
L
24 Oct · 1st Division
1-0
W
17 Oct · 1st Division
1-4
W
10 Oct · 1st Division
2-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · 1st Division
Korabi Peshkopi 0-0 Flamurtari
Tickets including this match