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1st Division

Besa Kavajë vs Burreli

Sat 07 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 0–0 · settled
Bu
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 93.7%
why
• league PROVEN (84.6%, n=26)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 84.6% of 26 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 66.5%)
draws 36.7% of matches
team history 11/10 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.7%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
77.0%
Draw
18.2%
Away win
4.7%
calibrated 07 Nov 18:01
scoring fit λ 2.29 / μ 0.48
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 30 Oct · 248 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
4.7%
21.3x 48.0% n=248 risky lost
Draw
18.2%
5.48x 48.0% n=248 risky won
top Home win
77.0%
1.3x 48.0% n=248 solid lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Besa Kavajë 5W / 4D / 3L · momentum Besa Kavajë 1.83 ppg vs Burreli 0.33 ppg
Besa Kavajë · last 6
07 Nov · 1st Division 0-0 D
01 Nov · 1st Division 3-2 W
28 Oct · 1st Division 0-0 D
24 Oct · 1st Division 2-0 W
17 Oct · 1st Division 2-0 L
11 Oct · 1st Division 2-0 W
Burreli · last 6
07 Nov · 1st Division 0-0 D
01 Nov · 1st Division 0-2 L
28 Oct · 1st Division 1-0 L
24 Oct · 1st Division 1-2 L
17 Oct · 1st Division 1-0 L
11 Oct · 1st Division 0-0 D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · 1st Division Besa Kavajë 0-0 Burreli
01 Mar 26 · 1st Division Besa Kavajë 1-0 Burreli
08 Dec 25 · 1st Division Besa Kavajë 2-0 Burreli
19 Sep 25 · 1st Division Burreli 2-1 Besa Kavajë
26 Mar 25 · 1st Division Besa Kavajë 0-0 Burreli
Tickets including this match
SURESHOT win chance 90.3% WON TREBLE win chance 81.3% VOID TREBLE win chance 81.3% VOID TREBLE win chance 81.8% VOID