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Erovnuli Liga

Dila vs Dinamo Tbilisi

Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 0–2 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.1%
why
• league WATCH (50.0%, n=10)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
watch · 50.0% of 10 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 23.7%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 29/27 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.1%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
36.7%
Draw
28.8%
Away win
34.5%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:27
scoring fit λ 1.47 / μ 1.42
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 184 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
34.5%
2.9x 46.7% n=184 risky won
Draw
28.8%
3.47x 46.7% n=184 risky lost
top Home win
36.7%
2.73x 46.7% n=184 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 16 meetings — Dila 4W / 6D / 6L · momentum Dila 0.0 ppg vs Dinamo Tbil… 2.17 ppg
Dila · last 6
08 Nov · Erovnuli Liga 0-2 L
02 Nov · Erovnuli Liga 2-1 L
28 Oct · David Kipiani Cup 3-1 L
24 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 2-1 L
19 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 0-2 L
10 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 3-1 L
Dinamo Tbilisi · last 6
08 Nov · Erovnuli Liga 0-2 W
31 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 0-0 D
23 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 0-2 W
18 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 3-1 W
11 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 1-0 L
04 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 1-2 W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Erovnuli Liga Dila 0-2 Dinamo Tbilisi
31 Aug 26 · Erovnuli Liga Dinamo Tbilisi 2-1 Dila
01 Jul 26 · Super Cup Dinamo Tbilisi 0-0 Dila
20 May 26 · Erovnuli Liga Dila 0-0 Dinamo Tbilisi
03 Apr 26 · Erovnuli Liga Dinamo Tbilisi 1-2 Dila