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Second League
CSKA Sofia II vs Rilski Sportist Samokov
Today 14:30 11 hours, 6 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home, draw refunds · 80.4%
book 1.29x · short <1.30x
why
• league OK (70.0%, n=30)
• type ledger 71% (n=62)
• short price 1.29x
league track
ok · 70.0% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 52.1%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 16/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DNB-H: 71.0% hit (n=62, 90d ledger)
measured band: 83.7% (n=221)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3022)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
80.4%
Home, draw refunds
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home, draw refunds
solid (80.4%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53 · 1.29x
board also had Under 4.5 goals 85.9%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
61.6%
Draw
23.4%
Away win
15.0%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.82 / μ 0.78
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 284 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
15.0%
|
6.67x | 52.8% n=284 | risky |
| Draw |
23.4%
|
4.27x | 52.8% n=284 | risky |
| top Home win |
61.6%
|
1.62x | 52.8% n=284 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — CSKA Sofia II 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum CSKA Sofia … 2.33 ppg vs Rilski Spor… 1.33 ppg
CSKA Sofia II · last 6
31 Oct · Second League
1-3
W
23 Oct · Second League
3-3
D
10 Oct · Second League
0-0
D
27 Sep · Second League
1-0
W
21 Sep · Second League
1-3
W
13 Sep · Second League
4-0
W
Rilski Sportist Samokov · last 6
30 Oct · Second League
0-0
D
23 Oct · Second League
3-1
L
17 Oct · Cup
2-3
L
10 Oct · Second League
0-0
D
26 Sep · Second League
1-0
W
20 Sep · Second League
1-3
W
Head-to-head last 5
11 Jul 26 · Friendlies Clubs
Rilski Sportist… 0-2 CSKA Sofia II