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League One
Nantong Zhiyun vs Dongguan United
Sat 07 Nov 08:30 0 minutes final 0–0 · settledDo
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.3%
why
• league OK (72.0%, n=25)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 72.0% of 25 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 52.4%)
draws 40.0% of matches
team history 23/23 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
morning 06-12 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=385)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.3%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
86.3%
Draw
11.7%
Away win
2.0%
calibrated 07 Nov 08:11
scoring fit λ 2.60 / μ 0.29
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 538 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
2.0%
|
50.07x | 46.8% n=538 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
11.7%
|
8.53x | 46.8% n=538 | risky | won |
| top Home win |
86.3%
|
1.16x | 46.8% n=538 | solid | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 4 meetings — Nantong Zhiyun 2W / 2D / 0L
· momentum Nantong Zhi… 2.17 ppg vs Dongguan Un… 0.67 ppg
Nantong Zhiyun · last 6
07 Nov · League One
0-0
D
31 Oct · League One
1-0
L
24 Oct · League One
1-0
W
18 Oct · League One
0-1
W
11 Oct · League One
0-1
W
06 Oct · League One
1-0
W
Dongguan United · last 6
07 Nov · League One
0-0
D
31 Oct · League One
1-2
L
24 Oct · League One
2-5
L
17 Oct · League One
5-0
L
11 Oct · League One
5-1
L
07 Oct · League One
1-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · League One
Nantong Zhiyun 0-0 Dongguan United
17 Jul 26 · League One
Dongguan United 1-2 Nantong Zhiyun
03 Aug 25 · League One
Dongguan United 1-1 Nantong Zhiyun
13 Apr 25 · League One
Nantong Zhiyun 2-0 Dongguan United
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