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JDFS Alberts vs JFK Ventspils

Sat 07 Nov 13:00 0 minutes final 3–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 81.8%
why
• league PROVEN (78.3%, n=23)
• type ledger 75% (n=2265)
league track
proven · 78.3% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 58.1%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 22/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2265, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.6% (n=679)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
81.8%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (81.8%)
@ 07 Nov 10:58
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
76.8%
Draw
18.2%
Away win
5.0%
calibrated 07 Nov 10:58
scoring fit λ 2.52 / μ 0.62
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 182 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
5.0%
20.01x 62.6% n=182 risky lost
Draw
18.2%
5.5x 62.6% n=182 risky lost
top Home win
76.8%
1.3x 62.6% n=182 solid won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 8 meetings — JDFS Alberts 7W / 1D / 0L · momentum JDFS Alberts 1.83 ppg vs JFK Ventspi… 0.67 ppg
JDFS Alberts · last 6
07 Nov · 1. Liga 3-1 W
31 Oct · 1. Liga 0-0 D
25 Oct · 1. Liga 5-0 W
18 Oct · 1. Liga 2-2 D
10 Oct · 1. Liga 0-2 W
19 Sep · 1. Liga 1-3 L
JFK Ventspils · last 6
07 Nov · 1. Liga 3-1 L
31 Oct · 1. Liga 2-0 W
24 Oct · 1. Liga 3-0 L
18 Oct · 1. Liga 0-0 D
10 Oct · 1. Liga 0-4 L
26 Sep · 1. Liga 1-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · 1. Liga JDFS Alberts 3-1 JFK Ventspils
18 Jul 26 · 1. Liga JFK Ventspils 1-3 JDFS Alberts
05 Oct 25 · 1. Liga JDFS Alberts 2-0 JFK Ventspils
25 May 25 · 1. Liga JFK Ventspils 1-1 JDFS Alberts
26 Oct 24 · 1. Liga JDFS Alberts 2-0 JFK Ventspils
Tickets including this match
TREBLE win chance 82.4% VOID TREBLE win chance 82.4% VOID TREBLE win chance 82.2% VOID TREBLE win chance 82.8% VOID TREBLE win chance 82.6% VOID TREBLE win chance 82.8% VOID