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1. Liga
Rēzekne FA vs Smiltene
Sat 07 Nov 13:00 0 minutes final 0–5 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 89.2%
why
• league PROVEN (78.3%, n=23)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
league track
proven · 78.3% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 58.1%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 20/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.1% (n=87)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
89.2%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
10.8%
Draw
22.0%
Away win
67.3%
calibrated 07 Nov 10:58
scoring fit λ 1.14 / μ 2.69
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 182 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
67.3%
|
1.49x | 62.6% n=182 | lean | won |
| Draw |
22.0%
|
4.55x | 62.6% n=182 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
10.8%
|
9.28x | 62.6% n=182 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 11 meetings — Rēzekne FA 3W / 3D / 5L
· momentum Rēzekne FA 0.0 ppg vs Smiltene 2.33 ppg
Rēzekne FA · last 6
07 Nov · 1. Liga
0-5
L
31 Oct · 1. Liga
2-0
L
25 Oct · 1. Liga
5-0
L
18 Oct · 1. Liga
0-1
L
11 Oct · 1. Liga
5-0
L
19 Sep · 1. Liga
3-1
L
Smiltene · last 6
07 Nov · 1. Liga
0-5
W
31 Oct · 1. Liga
1-1
D
24 Oct · 1. Liga
1-3
W
17 Oct · 1. Liga
2-2
D
11 Oct · 1. Liga
3-2
W
19 Sep · 1. Liga
0-2
W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · 1. Liga
Rēzekne FA 0-5 Smiltene
19 Jul 26 · 1. Liga
Smiltene 1-0 Rēzekne FA
01 Nov 25 · 1. Liga
Smiltene 2-2 Rēzekne FA
06 Jul 25 · 1. Liga
Rēzekne FA 2-1 Smiltene
28 Sep 24 · 1. Liga
Smiltene 3-3 Rēzekne FA
Tickets including this match