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2. liga
Liptovský Mikuláš vs MFK Bytča
Fri 06 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 4–0 · settledMF
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.1%
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 25/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.1%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
66.1%
Draw
19.7%
Away win
14.2%
calibrated 06 Nov 17:58
scoring fit λ 2.38 / μ 1.04
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 242 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
14.2%
|
7.04x | 45.0% n=242 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
19.7%
|
5.09x | 45.0% n=242 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
66.1%
|
1.51x | 45.0% n=242 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Liptovský Mik… 2W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Liptovský M… 1.67 ppg vs MFK Bytča 0.5 ppg
Liptovský Mikuláš · last 6
06 Nov · 2. liga
4-0
W
30 Oct · 2. liga
3-2
W
24 Oct · 2. liga
2-1
L
20 Oct · Cup
0-0
D
16 Oct · 2. liga
1-0
W
11 Oct · 2. liga
2-0
L
MFK Bytča · last 6
06 Nov · 2. liga
4-0
L
31 Oct · 2. liga
5-0
L
24 Oct · 2. liga
0-3
L
17 Oct · 2. liga
2-1
L
10 Oct · 2. liga
4-1
W
03 Oct · 2. liga
1-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · 2. liga
Liptovský Mikul… 4-0 MFK Bytča
25 Jul 26 · 2. liga
MFK Bytča 0-5 Liptovský Mikul…