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Super League
Mash'al vs Surkhon
Sat 07 Nov 13:15 0 minutes final 0–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 91.2%
why
• league OK (76.2%, n=21)
• type ledger 75% (n=661)
league track
ok · 76.2% of 21 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 54.9%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 16/16 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 74.9% hit (n=661, 90d ledger)
measured band: 94.1% (n=34)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 76.6% hit (n=3052)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
91.2%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Draw or Away
solid (91.2%)
@ 07 Nov 11:01
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
8.8%
Draw
24.9%
Away win
66.3%
calibrated 07 Nov 11:01
scoring fit λ 0.53 / μ 1.78
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 236 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
66.3%
|
1.51x | 52.1% n=236 | lean | lost |
| Draw |
24.8%
|
4.03x | 52.1% n=236 | risky | won |
| Home win |
8.8%
|
11.33x | 52.1% n=236 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 10 meetings — Mash'al 1W / 5D / 4L
· momentum Mash'al 0.17 ppg vs Surkhon 1.33 ppg
Mash'al · last 6
07 Nov · Super League
0-0
D
31 Oct · Super League
0-3
L
22 Oct · Super League
2-1
L
15 Oct · Super League
0-1
L
09 Oct · Super League
3-0
L
19 Sep · Super League
1-2
L
Surkhon · last 6
07 Nov · Super League
0-0
D
31 Oct · Super League
1-1
D
23 Oct · Super League
0-0
D
16 Oct · Super League
0-0
D
10 Oct · Super League
0-0
D
20 Sep · Super League
1-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Super League
Mash'al 0-0 Surkhon
22 Apr 26 · Super League
Surkhon 2-1 Mash'al
18 Sep 25 · Super League
Surkhon 0-0 Mash'al
26 Apr 25 · Super League
Mash'al 0-0 Surkhon
05 Apr 23 · Cup
Surkhon 0-0 Mash'al
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