HOME
Persian Gulf Pro League
Persepolis vs Fajr Sepasi
Fri 06 Nov 15:00 0 minutes final 1–2 · 0 won · 1 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 96.0%
book 1.06x · short <1.30x
why
• league OK (68.2%, n=44)
• type ledger 80% (n=1993)
• short price 1.06x
league track
ok · 68.2% of 44 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 53.4%)
draws 33.3% of matches
team history 13/11 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1993, 90d ledger)
measured band: 91.6% (n=95)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
96.0%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (96.0%)
@ 06 Nov 10:43 · 1.06x
pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
67.3%
Draw
28.8%
Away win
4.0%
calibrated 06 Nov 10:43
scoring fit λ 2.01 / μ 0.54
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 206 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
4.0%
|
25.14x | 46.1% n=206 | risky | won |
| Draw |
28.8%
|
3.48x | 46.1% n=206 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
67.3%
|
1.49x | 46.1% n=206 | lean | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Persepolis 2W / 1D / 2L
· momentum Persepolis 1.67 ppg vs Fajr Sepasi 1.67 ppg
Persepolis · last 6
06 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
1-2
L
30 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
0-1
W
25 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
0-1
L
19 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
0-3
W
14 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
0-0
D
09 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
3-1
W
Fajr Sepasi · last 6
06 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
1-2
W
25 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
2-2
D
19 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
2-0
W
13 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
2-1
W
08 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
6-1
L
07 Sep · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
1-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
Persepolis 1-2 Fajr Sepasi
18 Jan 26 · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
Fajr Sepasi 2-1 Persepolis
18 Aug 25 · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
Persepolis 1-1 Fajr Sepasi
02 Jun 22 · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
Fajr Sepasi 0-1 Persepolis
13 Jan 22 · Persian Gulf Pro Leag…
Persepolis 1-0 Fajr Sepasi
Tickets including this match