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Major League Soccer
San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City
Sun 08 Nov 02:00 0 minutes final 0–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 89.3%
why
• league PROVEN (72.0%, n=107)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 72.0% of 107 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 62.8%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 25/23 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.7% (n=313)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
89.3%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
64.1%
Draw
16.6%
Away win
19.3%
calibrated 08 Nov 00:47
scoring fit λ 2.37 / μ 1.21
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 491 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
19.3%
|
5.18x | 48.9% n=491 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
16.6%
|
6.02x | 48.9% n=491 | risky | won |
| top Home win |
64.1%
|
1.56x | 48.9% n=491 | lean | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 4 meetings — San Diego 2W / 2D / 0L
· momentum San Diego 1.17 ppg vs Sporting Ka… 0.33 ppg
San Diego · last 6
08 Nov · Major League Soccer
0-0
D
31 Oct · Major League Soccer
0-1
W
29 Oct · Major League Soccer
4-1
L
25 Oct · Major League Soccer
2-2
D
18 Oct · Major League Soccer
2-2
D
15 Oct · Major League Soccer
3-3
D
Sporting Kansas City · last 6
08 Nov · Major League Soccer
0-0
D
31 Oct · Major League Soccer
1-1
D
29 Oct · Major League Soccer
3-1
L
25 Oct · Major League Soccer
1-2
L
18 Oct · Major League Soccer
1-3
L
15 Oct · Major League Soccer
4-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Major League Soccer
San Diego 0-0 Sporting Kansas…
08 Mar 26 · Major League Soccer
Sporting Kansas… 0-1 San Diego
10 Aug 25 · Major League Soccer
Sporting Kansas… 0-2 San Diego
18 May 25 · Major League Soccer
San Diego 0-0 Sporting Kansas…
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