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Division 1
City vs Forte Virtus
Fri 06 Nov 14:50 0 minutes final 0–1 · 1 won · 0 lostFo
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 85.4%
why
• league OK (65.4%, n=26)
• type ledger 75% (n=2265)
league track
ok · 65.4% of 26 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 46.2%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 13/9 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2265, 90d ledger)
measured band: 80.0% (n=305)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
85.4%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (85.4%)
@ 06 Nov 10:46
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
14.1%
Draw
14.6%
Away win
71.2%
calibrated 06 Nov 10:46
scoring fit λ 0.90 / μ 2.36
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 09 Nov · 282 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
71.2%
|
1.4x | 53.5% n=282 | solid | won |
| Draw |
14.6%
|
6.83x | 53.5% n=282 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
14.1%
|
7.07x | 53.5% n=282 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — City 0W / 0D / 1L
· momentum City 0.0 ppg vs Forte Virtus 1.67 ppg
City · last 6
06 Nov · Division 1
0-1
L
30 Oct · Division 1
4-1
L
17 Oct · Division 1
0-2
L
11 Oct · Division 1
3-0
L
22 Sep · Presidents Cup
1-0
L
18 Sep · Division 1
2-3
L
Forte Virtus · last 6
06 Nov · Division 1
0-1
W
01 Nov · Division 1
1-1
D
18 Oct · Division 1
2-3
W
11 Oct · Division 1
2-3
L
23 Sep · Presidents Cup
1-0
L
18 Sep · Division 1
2-3
W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Division 1
City 0-1 Forte Virtus