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Girabola
Sagrada Esperança vs Sporting de Cabinda
Sat 07 Nov 16:00 0 minutes final 2–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 93.6%
why
• league PROVEN (75.8%, n=33)
• type ledger 80% (n=1994)
• SELECT 90%+ (measured >=88%)
league track
proven · 75.8% of 33 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.0%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 12/9 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1994, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.9% (n=164)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
93.6%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (93.6%)
@ 07 Nov 17:57
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
67.7%
Draw
25.9%
Away win
6.4%
calibrated 07 Nov 17:57
scoring fit λ 1.92 / μ 0.53
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 261 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
6.4%
|
15.63x | 49.0% n=261 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
25.9%
|
3.86x | 49.0% n=261 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
67.7%
|
1.48x | 49.0% n=261 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Sagrada Esper… 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Sagrada Esp… 1.83 ppg vs Sporting de… 0.67 ppg
Sagrada Esperança · last 6
07 Nov · Girabola
2-0
W
31 Oct · Girabola
3-1
L
24 Oct · Girabola
3-0
W
17 Oct · Girabola
1-1
D
10 Oct · Girabola
1-1
D
07 Oct · Girabola
1-0
W
Sporting de Cabinda · last 6
07 Nov · Girabola
2-0
L
01 Nov · Girabola
3-0
L
17 Oct · Girabola
0-0
D
11 Oct · Girabola
0-0
D
20 Sep · Girabola
0-0
D
09 Sep · Girabola
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Girabola
Sagrada Esperan… 2-0 Sporting de Cab…