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Premier League
BKMA vs Alashkert
Fri 06 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 4–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 89.2%
book 1.20x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (88.5%, n=26)
• type ledger 78% (n=2311)
• short price 1.20x
league track
proven · 88.5% of 26 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 71.0%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 17/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2311, 90d ledger)
measured band: 84.6% (n=311)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2556)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
89.2%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (89.2%)
@ 06 Nov 10:46 · 1.20x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
2.0%
Draw
10.8%
Away win
87.3%
calibrated 06 Nov 10:46
scoring fit λ 0.25 / μ 2.60
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
87.3%
|
1.15x | 67.7% n=31 | solid | lost |
| Draw |
10.8%
|
9.29x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
2.0%
|
51.03x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 14 meetings — BKMA 4W / 2D / 8L
· momentum BKMA 0.5 ppg vs Alashkert 2.17 ppg
BKMA · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
4-1
W
31 Oct · Premier League
2-1
L
28 Oct · Cup
4-0
L
25 Oct · Premier League
4-1
L
18 Oct · Premier League
0-1
L
12 Oct · Premier League
5-0
L
Alashkert · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
4-1
L
31 Oct · Premier League
0-2
W
28 Oct · Cup
4-0
W
24 Oct · Premier League
0-1
W
16 Oct · Premier League
5-1
W
10 Oct · Premier League
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Premier League
BKMA 4-1 Alashkert
28 Oct 26 · Cup
Alashkert 4-0 BKMA
10 Aug 26 · Premier League
Alashkert 3-0 BKMA
02 May 26 · Premier League
BKMA 2-2 Alashkert
08 Nov 25 · Premier League
Alashkert 2-0 BKMA
Tickets including this match