Ra
HOME
Championship
Rathfriland vs H&W Welders
Fri 13 Nov 21:45 1 day, 21 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 77.0%
why
• league OK (66.7%, n=33)
• type ledger 75% (n=661)
league track
ok · 66.7% of 33 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 49.6%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 15/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 74.9% hit (n=661, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.0% (n=129)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
77.0%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Draw or Away
solid (77.0%)
@ 11 Nov 23:57
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
23.0%
Draw
26.5%
Away win
50.5%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:57
scoring fit λ 1.33 / μ 2.00
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 06 Nov · 332 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
50.5%
|
1.98x | 48.2% n=332 | risky |
| Draw |
26.5%
|
3.77x | 48.2% n=332 | risky |
| Home win |
23.0%
|
4.35x | 48.2% n=332 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Rathfriland 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Rathfriland 2.33 ppg vs H&W Welders 1.17 ppg
Rathfriland · last 6
06 Nov · Championship
0-1
W
30 Oct · Championship
2-2
D
20 Oct · League Cup
0-0
D
17 Oct · Championship
0-1
W
09 Oct · Championship
2-1
W
03 Oct · Championship
1-3
W
H&W Welders · last 6
07 Nov · Championship
3-0
W
24 Oct · Championship
1-2
L
20 Oct · League Cup
1-3
W
16 Oct · Championship
4-0
L
10 Oct · Championship
0-0
D
03 Oct · Championship
1-3
L
Head-to-head last 5
03 Oct 26 · Championship
H&W Welders 1-3 Rathfriland