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Championship
Newry City AFC vs Strabane Athletic
Fri 13 Nov 21:45 1 day, 20 hoursSt
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 76.4%
why
• league OK (66.7%, n=33)
• type ledger 79% (n=2310)
league track
ok · 66.7% of 33 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 49.6%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 17/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2310, 90d ledger)
measured band: 77.3% (n=950)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
76.4%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (76.4%)
@ 11 Nov 23:57
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
49.4%
Draw
23.6%
Away win
27.1%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:57
scoring fit λ 1.79 / μ 1.28
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 06 Nov · 332 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
27.1%
|
3.69x | 48.2% n=332 | risky |
| Draw |
23.6%
|
4.24x | 48.2% n=332 | risky |
| top Home win |
49.3%
|
2.03x | 48.2% n=332 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Newry City AFC 0W / 1D / 1L
· momentum Newry City … 1.33 ppg vs Strabane At… 0.33 ppg
Newry City AFC · last 6
06 Nov · Championship
1-2
W
31 Oct · Championship
1-1
D
23 Oct · Championship
0-2
L
20 Oct · League Cup
3-0
L
17 Oct · Championship
1-1
D
09 Oct · Championship
3-1
W
Strabane Athletic · last 6
06 Nov · Championship
0-1
L
30 Oct · Championship
2-2
D
23 Oct · Championship
0-1
L
20 Oct · League Cup
0-5
L
16 Oct · Championship
1-1
D
10 Oct · Championship
1-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
11 Sep 26 · Championship
Strabane Athlet… 2-2 Newry City AFC
18 Apr 26 · Premier Intermediate …
Newry City AFC 0-1 Strabane Athlet…