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Championnat National
USSK vs Dragons
Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 87.2%
why
• league PROVEN (90.9%, n=22)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
league track
proven · 90.9% of 22 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 72.2%)
draws 35.0% of matches
team history 14/12 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 84.9% (n=292)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
87.2%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (87.2%)
@ 08 Nov 17:24
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
58.1%
Draw
29.1%
Away win
12.8%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.53 / μ 0.61
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 06 Nov · 368 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
12.8%
|
7.84x | 43.8% n=368 | risky |
| Draw |
29.1%
|
3.43x | 43.8% n=368 | risky |
| top Home win |
58.1%
|
1.72x | 43.8% n=368 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 11 meetings — USSK 5W / 3D / 3L
· momentum USSK 1.33 ppg vs Dragons 0.33 ppg
USSK · last 6
31 Oct · Championnat National
1-1
D
24 Oct · Championnat National
0-2
W
18 Oct · Championnat National
0-0
D
11 Oct · Championnat National
0-0
D
04 Oct · Championnat National
1-1
D
26 Sep · Championnat National
1-1
D
Dragons · last 6
01 Nov · Championnat National
0-1
L
24 Oct · Championnat National
0-0
D
18 Oct · Championnat National
2-0
L
10 Oct · Championnat National
0-1
L
03 Oct · Championnat National
2-0
L
26 Sep · Championnat National
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
05 Apr 26 · Championnat National
Dragons 0-0 USSK
02 Nov 25 · Championnat National
USSK 1-0 Dragons
01 Jun 25 · Championnat National
USSK 2-0 Dragons
11 Jan 25 · Championnat National
Dragons 1-1 USSK
13 Jan 24 · Championnat National
Dragons 3-0 USSK
Tickets including this match