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Second League
Kozuv Gevgelija vs Pelister
Sat 07 Nov 14:00 0 minutes final 1–1 · 0 won · 1 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 86.8%
why
• league PROVEN (78.9%, n=19)
• type ledger 75% (n=2264)
league track
proven · 78.9% of 19 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.7%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 16/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2264, 90d ledger)
measured band: 80.0% (n=305)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
86.8%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (86.8%)
@ 07 Nov 18:00
pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
2.0%
Draw
13.2%
Away win
84.8%
calibrated 07 Nov 18:00
scoring fit λ 0.27 / μ 2.46
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 233 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
84.8%
|
1.18x | 64.8% n=233 | solid | lost |
| Draw |
13.2%
|
7.57x | 64.8% n=233 | risky | won |
| Home win |
2.0%
|
50.83x | 64.8% n=233 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Kozuv Gevgeli… 0W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Kozuv Gevge… 1.17 ppg vs Pelister 1.83 ppg
Kozuv Gevgelija · last 6
07 Nov · Second League
1-1
D
31 Oct · Second League
1-3
W
24 Oct · Second League
2-2
D
17 Oct · Second League
0-0
D
10 Oct · Second League
1-1
D
19 Sep · Second League
0-1
L
Pelister · last 6
07 Nov · Second League
1-1
D
31 Oct · Second League
6-1
W
28 Oct · Cup
0-3
L
24 Oct · Second League
0-2
W
17 Oct · Second League
3-0
W
11 Oct · Second League
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Second League
Kozuv Gevgelija 1-1 Pelister
Tickets including this match