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Super Liga
Podbrezová vs Ružomberok
Sun 08 Nov 16:30 0 minutes final 4–1 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.0%
why
• league PROVEN (83.3%, n=30)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 83.3% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 66.4%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 22/23 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.0%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
51.7%
Draw
20.9%
Away win
27.3%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:27
scoring fit λ 1.88 / μ 1.31
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 194 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
27.3%
|
3.66x | 52.6% n=194 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
20.9%
|
4.78x | 52.6% n=194 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
51.7%
|
1.93x | 52.6% n=194 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 4 meetings — Podbrezová 3W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Podbrezová 1.5 ppg vs Ružomberok 1.67 ppg
Podbrezová · last 6
08 Nov · Super Liga
4-1
W
31 Oct · Super Liga
1-2
L
24 Oct · Super Liga
1-4
W
18 Oct · Super Liga
1-0
L
11 Oct · Super Liga
1-3
L
29 Sep · Cup
0-2
W
Ružomberok · last 6
08 Nov · Super Liga
4-1
L
01 Nov · Super Liga
1-0
W
24 Oct · Super Liga
5-0
L
17 Oct · Super Liga
0-1
W
14 Oct · Cup
0-3
W
11 Oct · Super Liga
2-2
D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Super Liga
Podbrezová 4-1 Ružomberok
08 Aug 26 · Super Liga
Ružomberok 1-4 Podbrezová
14 Feb 26 · Super Liga
Podbrezová 5-0 Ružomberok
28 Sep 25 · Super Liga
Ružomberok 1-0 Podbrezová