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Folgore vs Virtus
Sat 07 Nov 16:00 0 minutes final 2–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 88.8%
why
• league OK (75.0%, n=20)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
league track
ok · 75.0% of 20 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 53.1%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 10/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.1% (n=87)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
88.8%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
11.2%
Draw
26.7%
Away win
62.1%
calibrated 07 Nov 10:57
scoring fit λ 0.92 / μ 2.15
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 03 Nov · 320 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
62.1%
|
1.61x | 62.2% n=320 | lean | lost |
| Draw |
26.7%
|
3.74x | 62.2% n=320 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
11.2%
|
8.91x | 62.2% n=320 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Folgore 2W / 2D / 8L
· momentum Folgore 2.67 ppg vs Virtus 2.5 ppg
Folgore · last 6
07 Nov · Campionato
2-0
W
01 Nov · Campionato
1-1
D
28 Oct · Coppa Titano
1-0
W
25 Oct · Campionato
1-2
W
09 Oct · Campionato
1-5
W
19 Sep · Campionato
2-0
W
Virtus · last 6
07 Nov · Campionato
2-0
L
31 Oct · Campionato
0-1
W
28 Oct · Coppa Titano
3-0
W
23 Oct · Campionato
0-1
W
11 Oct · Campionato
5-0
W
18 Sep · Campionato
2-3
W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Campionato
Folgore 2-0 Virtus
22 Jan 26 · Campionato
Folgore 1-2 Virtus
12 Sep 25 · Campionato
Virtus 2-1 Folgore
01 Mar 25 · Campionato
Folgore 0-2 Virtus
02 Nov 24 · Campionato
Virtus 1-0 Folgore
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