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Cailungo vs Tre Fiori
Sun 08 Nov 16:00 0 minutes final 2–2 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.3%
why
• league OK (75.0%, n=20)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 75.0% of 20 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 53.1%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 10/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.3%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
2.0%
Draw
15.7%
Away win
82.3%
calibrated 08 Nov 10:36
scoring fit λ 0.45 / μ 2.69
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 03 Nov · 320 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
82.3%
|
1.22x | 62.2% n=320 | solid | lost |
| Draw |
15.7%
|
6.37x | 62.2% n=320 | risky | won |
| Home win |
2.0%
|
50.59x | 62.2% n=320 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Cailungo 0W / 3D / 9L
· momentum Cailungo 1.0 ppg vs Tre Fiori 1.83 ppg
Cailungo · last 6
08 Nov · Campionato
2-2
D
30 Oct · Campionato
1-1
D
28 Oct · Coppa Titano
1-4
L
24 Oct · Campionato
1-1
D
09 Oct · Campionato
1-2
L
20 Sep · Campionato
0-3
W
Tre Fiori · last 6
08 Nov · Campionato
2-2
D
31 Oct · Campionato
1-0
W
28 Oct · Coppa Titano
5-0
W
23 Oct · Campionato
0-0
D
10 Oct · Campionato
0-1
W
18 Sep · Campionato
2-3
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Campionato
Cailungo 2-2 Tre Fiori
08 Mar 26 · Campionato
Tre Fiori 3-2 Cailungo
08 Nov 25 · Campionato
Cailungo 1-4 Tre Fiori
13 Apr 25 · Campionato
Cailungo 1-2 Tre Fiori
15 Dec 24 · Campionato
Tre Fiori 7-0 Cailungo