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1a Divisió
FC Santa Coloma vs Ordino
Sun 08 Nov 15:00 0 minutes final 4–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.9%
why
• league OK (64.3%, n=14)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 64.3% of 14 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 38.8%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 13/9 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.9%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
85.6%
Draw
12.4%
Away win
2.0%
calibrated 08 Nov 10:40
scoring fit λ 2.83 / μ 0.40
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 01 Nov · 150 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
2.0%
|
50.08x | 55.3% n=150 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
12.4%
|
8.05x | 55.3% n=150 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
85.6%
|
1.17x | 55.3% n=150 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 22 meetings — FC Santa Colo… 15W / 4D / 3L
· momentum FC Santa Co… 2.67 ppg vs Ordino 1.0 ppg
FC Santa Coloma · last 6
08 Nov · 1a Divisió
4-0
W
01 Nov · 1a Divisió
0-2
W
24 Oct · 1a Divisió
1-1
D
18 Oct · 1a Divisió
1-2
W
11 Oct · 1a Divisió
5-0
W
20 Sep · 1a Divisió
1-5
W
Ordino · last 6
08 Nov · 1a Divisió
4-0
L
01 Nov · 1a Divisió
0-2
L
25 Oct · 1a Divisió
3-2
W
17 Oct · 1a Divisió
0-1
W
10 Oct · 1a Divisió
0-4
L
20 Sep · 1a Divisió
4-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · 1a Divisió
FC Santa Coloma 4-0 Ordino
10 May 26 · 1a Divisió
FC Santa Coloma 0-1 Ordino
15 Feb 26 · 1a Divisió
Ordino 2-1 FC Santa Coloma
23 Nov 25 · 1a Divisió
FC Santa Coloma 3-1 Ordino
30 Mar 25 · 1a Divisió
FC Santa Coloma 0-1 Ordino
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