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1a Divisió
Carroi vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Sun 08 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 0–2 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.3%
why
• league OK (64.3%, n=14)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 64.3% of 14 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 38.8%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 9/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.3%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
4.6%
Draw
13.6%
Away win
81.9%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:27
scoring fit λ 0.43 / μ 2.46
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 01 Nov · 150 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
81.9%
|
1.22x | 55.3% n=150 | solid | won |
| Draw |
13.6%
|
7.38x | 55.3% n=150 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
4.6%
|
21.89x | 55.3% n=150 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Carroi 0W / 0D / 12L
· momentum Carroi 0.17 ppg vs Atlètic Clu… 1.83 ppg
Carroi · last 6
08 Nov · 1a Divisió
0-2
L
01 Nov · 1a Divisió
0-3
L
25 Oct · 1a Divisió
3-2
L
18 Oct · 1a Divisió
0-1
L
11 Oct · 1a Divisió
3-0
L
19 Sep · 1a Divisió
2-2
D
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes · last 6
08 Nov · 1a Divisió
0-2
W
01 Nov · 1a Divisió
0-2
W
25 Oct · 1a Divisió
1-1
D
18 Oct · 1a Divisió
4-2
L
11 Oct · 1a Divisió
1-1
D
20 Sep · 1a Divisió
0-3
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · 1a Divisió
Carroi 0-2 Atlètic Club d'…
26 Apr 26 · 1a Divisió
Atlètic Club d'… 3-0 Carroi
31 Jan 26 · 1a Divisió
Carroi 1-4 Atlètic Club d'…
29 Oct 25 · 1a Divisió
Atlètic Club d'… 3-0 Carroi
10 Mar 24 · 1a Divisió
Atlètic Club d'… 2-1 Carroi
Tickets including this match