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Premijer Liga
Borac Banja Luka vs Radnik Bijeljina
Sat 07 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 4–1 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.0%
why
• league PROVEN (86.7%, n=15)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 86.7% of 15 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 62.1%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 30/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.0%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
77.3%
Draw
20.5%
Away win
2.2%
calibrated 07 Nov 18:00
scoring fit λ 2.33 / μ 0.43
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 175 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
2.2%
|
44.64x | 55.4% n=175 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
20.5%
|
4.88x | 55.4% n=175 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
77.3%
|
1.29x | 55.4% n=175 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 16 meetings — Borac Banja L… 11W / 3D / 2L
· momentum Borac Banja… 2.5 ppg vs Radnik Bije… 1.67 ppg
Borac Banja Luka · last 6
07 Nov · Premijer Liga
4-1
W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
2-0
L
31 Oct · Premijer Liga
2-4
W
28 Oct · Cup
0-2
W
24 Oct · Premijer Liga
2-0
W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
2-0
W
Radnik Bijeljina · last 6
07 Nov · Premijer Liga
4-1
L
31 Oct · Premijer Liga
2-0
W
28 Oct · Cup
0-1
W
24 Oct · Premijer Liga
1-0
L
17 Oct · Premijer Liga
1-1
D
11 Oct · Premijer Liga
3-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Premijer Liga
Borac Banja Luka 4-1 Radnik Bijeljina
26 Sep 26 · Friendlies Clubs
Borac Banja Luka 4-3 Radnik Bijeljina
30 Aug 26 · Premijer Liga
Radnik Bijeljina 2-2 Borac Banja Luka
22 May 26 · Premijer Liga
Radnik Bijeljina 0-0 Borac Banja Luka
21 Mar 26 · Premijer Liga
Borac Banja Luka 1-0 Radnik Bijeljina
Tickets including this match