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UEFA Europa League

Crystal Palace vs 1899 Hoffenheim

Thu 05 Nov 19:45 0 minutes final 1–1 · 0 won · 1 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Either team wins · 80.5%
book 1.33x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (71.1%, n=45)
• type ledger 79% (n=2318)
• priced 1.33x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• draw bets in this league lose 31% at book prices (90d n=70)
league track
proven · 71.1% of 45 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.6%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 25/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2318, 90d ledger)
measured band: 80.5% (n=706)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2564)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
80.5%
Either team wins
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (80.5%)
@ 05 Nov 17:24 · 1.33x
board also had Under 5.5 goals 87.5% pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
49.9%
Draw
19.5%
Away win
30.7%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.88 / μ 1.42
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 269 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
30.7%
3.26x 55.4% n=269 risky lost
Draw
19.5%
5.13x 55.4% n=269 risky won
top Home win
49.9%
2.01x 55.4% n=269 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Crystal Palace 0W / 1D / 0L · momentum Crystal Pal… 0.83 ppg vs 1899 Hoffen… 1.83 ppg
Crystal Palace · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League 1-3 L
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League 1-1 D
31 Oct · Premier League 2-0 L
28 Oct · League Cup 0-1 W
25 Oct · Premier League 0-2 L
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League 2-2 D
1899 Hoffenheim · last 6
08 Nov · Bundesliga 2-1 W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League 1-1 D
31 Oct · Bundesliga 2-0 L
28 Oct · DFB Pokal 1-1 D
25 Oct · Bundesliga 3-0 W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League 3-0 W
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · UEFA Europa League Crystal Palace 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim