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Super League 1
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK
Sun 08 Nov 21:00 0 minutes final 1–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 84.9%
book 1.27x · short <1.30x
why
• league OK (65.2%, n=23)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
• short price 1.27x
league track
ok · 65.2% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 44.9%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 24/24 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 82.0% (n=423)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
84.9%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (84.9%)
@ 08 Nov 17:27 · 1.27x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
59.1%
Draw
25.8%
Away win
15.1%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:27
scoring fit λ 1.86 / μ 0.86
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 236 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
15.1%
|
6.62x | 52.5% n=236 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
25.8%
|
3.87x | 52.5% n=236 | risky | won |
| top Home win |
59.1%
|
1.69x | 52.5% n=236 | lean | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 52 meetings — Olympiakos Pi… 26W / 10D / 16L
· momentum Olympiakos … 2.33 ppg vs PAOK 1.67 ppg
Olympiakos Piraeus · last 6
08 Nov · Super League 1
1-1
D
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League
0-0
D
31 Oct · Super League 1
2-3
W
28 Oct · Cup
0-2
W
25 Oct · Super League 1
5-0
W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
1-0
W
PAOK · last 6
08 Nov · Super League 1
1-1
D
01 Nov · Super League 1
2-1
W
28 Oct · Cup
3-1
W
25 Oct · Super League 1
2-1
L
18 Oct · Super League 1
2-1
W
12 Oct · Super League 1
1-3
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Super League 1
Olympiakos Pira… 1-1 PAOK
10 May 26 · Super League 1
Olympiakos Pira… 1-1 PAOK
03 May 26 · Super League 1
PAOK 3-1 Olympiakos Pira…
08 Mar 26 · Super League 1
Olympiakos Pira… 0-0 PAOK
14 Jan 26 · Cup
Olympiakos Pira… 0-2 PAOK
Tickets including this match