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Super League 1

Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata

Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 1–1 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 92.6%
why
• league OK (65.2%, n=23)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 65.2% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 44.9%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 17/15 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.6%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
44.7%
Draw
28.1%
Away win
27.2%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:27
scoring fit λ 1.60 / μ 1.21
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 236 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
27.2%
3.68x 52.5% n=236 risky lost
Draw
28.1%
3.56x 52.5% n=236 risky won
top Home win
44.7%
2.24x 52.5% n=236 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Asteras Tripo… 0W / 1D / 0L · momentum Asteras Tri… 0.83 ppg vs Kalamata 1.83 ppg
Asteras Tripolis · last 6
08 Nov · Super League 1 1-1 D
01 Nov · Super League 1 2-1 L
27 Oct · Cup 0-2 L
24 Oct · Super League 1 0-0 D
18 Oct · Super League 1 5-1 L
10 Oct · Super League 1 2-1 W
Kalamata · last 6
08 Nov · Super League 1 1-1 D
02 Nov · Super League 1 1-1 D
28 Oct · Cup 0-2 W
25 Oct · Super League 1 5-0 L
18 Oct · Super League 1 4-3 W
12 Oct · Super League 1 1-3 W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Super League 1 Asteras Tripolis 1-1 Kalamata