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Veikkausliiga
HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu
Sun 08 Nov 15:00 0 minutes final 3–3 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.5%
why
• league OK (70.0%, n=20)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 70.0% of 20 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 48.1%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 34/25 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.5%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
78.4%
Draw
14.4%
Away win
7.2%
calibrated 08 Nov 10:39
scoring fit λ 2.58 / μ 0.67
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 179 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
7.2%
|
13.82x | 49.2% n=179 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
14.4%
|
6.96x | 49.2% n=179 | risky | won |
| top Home win |
78.4%
|
1.27x | 49.2% n=179 | solid | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 14 meetings — HJK Helsinki 8W / 3D / 3L
· momentum HJK Helsinki 2.33 ppg vs AC Oulu 1.83 ppg
HJK Helsinki · last 6
08 Nov · Veikkausliiga
3-3
D
02 Nov · Veikkausliiga
0-4
W
29 Oct · Veikkausliiga
2-4
W
25 Oct · Veikkausliiga
2-2
D
17 Oct · Veikkausliiga
4-0
W
12 Oct · Veikkausliiga
3-4
W
AC Oulu · last 6
08 Nov · Veikkausliiga
3-3
D
01 Nov · Veikkausliiga
2-0
W
28 Oct · Veikkausliiga
0-0
D
24 Oct · Veikkausliiga
3-4
W
17 Oct · Veikkausliiga
1-2
W
12 Oct · Veikkausliiga
3-4
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Veikkausliiga
HJK Helsinki 3-3 AC Oulu
12 Oct 26 · Veikkausliiga
AC Oulu 3-4 HJK Helsinki
09 Aug 26 · Veikkausliiga
AC Oulu 0-1 HJK Helsinki
11 Apr 26 · Veikkausliiga
HJK Helsinki 0-1 AC Oulu
14 Mar 26 · League Cup
AC Oulu 2-1 HJK Helsinki