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Friendlies
Singapore vs Paraguay
Fri 13 Nov 14:00 1 day, 13 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.4%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=1)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 1 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 11/8 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 76.6% hit (n=3052)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.4%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
38.0%
Draw
20.8%
Away win
41.2%
calibrated 12 Nov 00:00
scoring fit λ 1.43 / μ 1.50
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 661 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
41.2%
|
2.43x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| Draw |
20.8%
|
4.8x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| Home win |
38.0%
|
2.63x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Singapore 1.17 ppg vs Paraguay 1.83 ppg
Singapore · last 6
01 Oct · FIFA Asean Cup
2-0
L
28 Sep · FIFA Asean Cup
1-0
W
25 Sep · FIFA Asean Cup
2-0
L
18 Aug · AFF Championship
1-2
W
15 Aug · AFF Championship
1-3
L
07 Aug · AFF Championship
1-1
D
Paraguay · last 6
03 Oct · Friendlies
0-1
W
27 Sep · Friendlies
0-2
W
04 Jul · World Cup
0-1
L
29 Jun · World Cup
1-1
D
26 Jun · World Cup
0-0
D
20 Jun · World Cup
0-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.