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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

South Africa vs Kenya

Today 19:00 1 hour, 27 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 94.7%
why
• type ledger 79% (n=1997)
• league is untracked (no graded ledger yet)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 9/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.0% hit (n=1997, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.7% (n=164)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.7%
Home or Draw
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
76.1%
Draw
18.6%
Away win
5.3%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 2.36 / μ 0.56
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
5.3%
18.8x – risky
Draw
18.6%
5.38x – risky
top Home win
76.1%
1.31x – solid
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum South Africa 2.17 ppg vs Kenya 1.67 ppg
South Africa · last 6
04 Oct · Friendlies 0-1 W
30 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 0-5 W
26 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 2-1 W
28 Jun · World Cup 0-1 L
25 Jun · World Cup 1-0 W
18 Jun · World Cup 1-1 D
Kenya · last 6
01 Oct · Africa Cup of Nations… 0-0 D
26 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 1-1 D
07 Jun · Friendlies 4-0 W
04 Jun · Friendlies 1-1 D
30 Mar · FIFA Series 0-3 W
27 Mar · FIFA Series 1-1 D
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.