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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Algeria vs Togo

Today 19:00 1 hour, 10 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 93.4%
why
• type ledger 79% (n=1997)
• league is untracked (no graded ledger yet)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 9/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.0% hit (n=1997, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.7% (n=164)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.4%
Home or Draw
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
80.3%
Draw
13.1%
Away win
6.6%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 2.34 / μ 0.47
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
6.6%
15.1x – risky
Draw
13.1%
7.62x – risky
top Home win
80.3%
1.25x – solid
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Algeria 1.83 ppg vs Togo 1.83 ppg
Algeria · last 6
06 Oct · Friendlies 2-1 W
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 2-2 D
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 3-1 W
03 Jul · World Cup 2-0 L
28 Jun · World Cup 3-3 D
23 Jun · World Cup 1-2 W
Togo · last 6
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 2-0 L
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 1-0 W
09 Jun · Friendlies 5-1 W
05 Jun · Friendlies 1-1 D
31 Mar · Friendlies 0-1 W
27 Mar · Friendlies 2-2 D
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.