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UEFA Nations League
England vs Croatia
Tomorrow 21:45 1 day, 19 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.5%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 14/10 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.5%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
78.4%
Draw
15.8%
Away win
5.8%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:55
scoring fit λ 2.96 / μ 0.83
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 107 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
5.8%
|
17.15x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
| Draw |
15.8%
|
6.34x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
| top Home win |
78.4%
|
1.27x | 41.1% n=107 | solid |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — England 3W / 0D / 0L
· momentum England 2.0 ppg vs Croatia 1.0 ppg
England · last 6
06 Oct · UEFA Nations League
3-0
W
03 Oct · UEFA Nations League
0-7
W
29 Sep · UEFA Nations League
0-2
W
26 Sep · UEFA Nations League
2-3
L
18 Jul · World Cup
4-6
W
15 Jul · World Cup
1-2
L
Croatia · last 6
06 Oct · UEFA Nations League
1-2
L
03 Oct · UEFA Nations League
0-7
L
29 Sep · UEFA Nations League
4-1
L
26 Sep · UEFA Nations League
1-2
W
03 Jul · World Cup
2-1
L
27 Jun · World Cup
2-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
03 Oct 26 · UEFA Nations League
Croatia 0-7 England
17 Jun 26 · World Cup
England 4-2 Croatia
13 Jun 21 · Euro Championship
England 1-0 Croatia