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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Ivory Coast vs Gambia

Today 19:00 56 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 94.7%
why
• type ledger 79% (n=1997)
• league is untracked (no graded ledger yet)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 9/3 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.0% hit (n=1997, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.7% (n=164)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.7%
Home or Draw
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
78.4%
Draw
16.2%
Away win
5.3%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 2.63 / μ 0.64
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
5.3%
18.72x – risky
Draw
16.2%
6.17x – risky
top Home win
78.4%
1.27x – solid
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Ivory Coast 1.5 ppg vs Gambia 1.5 ppg
Ivory Coast · last 6
03 Oct · Friendlies 0-1 L
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 0-2 W
24 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 2-0 W
30 Jun · World Cup 1-2 L
25 Jun · World Cup 0-2 W
20 Jun · World Cup 2-1 L
Gambia · last 6
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 2-4 W
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 2-1 W
29 May · Friendlies 3-1 L
31 Mar · Friendlies 3-1 L
14 Oct · World Cup - Qualifica… 0-7 W
10 Oct · World Cup - Qualifica… 3-4 L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.