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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe

Today 19:00 1 hour, 12 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 75.9%
book 1.37x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• type ledger 79% (n=1997)
• priced 1.37x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• league is untracked (no graded ledger yet)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 3/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.0% hit (n=1997, 90d ledger)
measured band: 77.5% (n=583)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
75.9%
Home or Draw
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw solid (75.9%)
@ 11 Nov 17:02 · 1.37x
board also had Over 0.5 goals 87.1%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
43.3%
Draw
32.5%
Away win
24.1%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 1.54 / μ 1.12
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
24.1%
4.14x – risky
Draw
32.5%
3.08x – risky
top Home win
43.3%
2.31x – risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Equatorial … 1.17 ppg vs Zimbabwe 1.5 ppg
Equatorial Guinea · last 6
28 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 1-0 W
24 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 2-0 L
08 Jun · Friendlies 0-1 L
31 Mar · Friendlies 1-1 D
25 Mar · Friendlies 0-1 W
31 Dec · Africa Cup of Nations 1-3 L
Zimbabwe · last 6
28 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 1-2 L
24 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 2-3 W
30 May · Friendlies 0-1 W
26 May · Friendlies 2-0 L
28 Mar · Friendlies 0-3 W
29 Dec · Africa Cup of Nations 2-3 L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.