HOME
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Cape Verde vs Liberia

Today 19:00 1 hour, 7 minutes
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 93.5%
why
• type ledger 79% (n=1997)
• league is untracked (no graded ledger yet)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 8/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.0% hit (n=1997, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.7% (n=164)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.5%
Home or Draw
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
74.6%
Draw
18.9%
Away win
6.5%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 2.22 / μ 0.55
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
6.5%
15.45x – risky
Draw
18.9%
5.28x – risky
top Home win
74.6%
1.34x – solid
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Cape Verde 0.5 ppg vs Liberia 0.67 ppg
Cape Verde · last 6
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 1-2 L
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 3-1 L
04 Jul · World Cup 3-2 L
27 Jun · World Cup 0-0 D
22 Jun · World Cup 2-2 D
15 Jun · World Cup 0-0 D
Liberia · last 6
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 0-1 L
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 3-1 L
09 Jun · Friendlies 3-1 W
06 Jun · Friendlies 1-0 L
31 Mar · Friendlies 2-2 D
27 Mar · Friendlies 1-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.