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UEFA Nations League
Luxembourg vs Estonia
Fri 13 Nov 21:45 1 day, 21 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 91.8%
why
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 6/6 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.3% (n=1151)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.8%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
37.5%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
36.9%
calibrated 12 Nov 00:01
scoring fit λ 1.00 / μ 0.99
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 107 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
36.9%
|
2.71x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
| Draw |
25.6%
|
3.91x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
| top Home win |
37.6%
|
2.66x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Luxembourg 0W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Luxembourg 1.0 ppg vs Estonia 1.5 ppg
Luxembourg · last 6
06 Oct · UEFA Nations League
0-2
L
03 Oct · UEFA Nations League
1-0
L
29 Sep · UEFA Nations League
0-3
L
26 Sep · UEFA Nations League
1-2
W
06 Jun · Friendlies
0-1
W
03 Jun · Friendlies
0-1
L
Estonia · last 6
06 Oct · UEFA Nations League
0-0
D
03 Oct · UEFA Nations League
1-0
W
29 Sep · UEFA Nations League
0-0
D
26 Sep · UEFA Nations League
1-1
D
09 Jun · Baltic Cup
1-0
L
06 Jun · Baltic Cup
1-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
03 Oct 26 · UEFA Nations League
Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg