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Super League 1

AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos

Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 2–1 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.3%
why
• league OK (65.2%, n=23)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 65.2% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 44.9%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 27/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.3% (n=1742)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.3%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
75.3%
Draw
17.8%
Away win
6.9%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:27
scoring fit λ 2.42 / μ 0.65
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 236 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
6.9%
14.48x 52.5% n=236 risky lost
Draw
17.8%
5.63x 52.5% n=236 risky lost
top Home win
75.3%
1.33x 52.5% n=236 solid won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 7 meetings — AEK Athens FC 6W / 1D / 0L · momentum AEK Athens … 1.0 ppg vs Levadiakos 0.83 ppg
AEK Athens FC · last 6
08 Nov · Super League 1 2-1 W
04 Nov · UEFA Champions League 2-3 L
01 Nov · Super League 1 2-0 L
28 Oct · Cup 3-1 L
24 Oct · Super League 1 5-0 W
20 Oct · UEFA Champions League 5-1 L
Levadiakos · last 6
08 Nov · Super League 1 2-1 L
01 Nov · Super League 1 3-0 W
24 Oct · Super League 1 0-0 D
17 Oct · Super League 1 0-0 D
11 Oct · Super League 1 2-0 L
20 Sep · Super League 1 0-1 L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Super League 1 AEK Athens FC 2-1 Levadiakos
22 Feb 26 · Super League 1 AEK Athens FC 4-0 Levadiakos
14 Sep 25 · Super League 1 Levadiakos 0-1 AEK Athens FC
22 Dec 24 · Super League 1 AEK Athens FC 1-1 Levadiakos
01 Sep 24 · Super League 1 Levadiakos 0-3 AEK Athens FC
Tickets including this match
TREBLE win chance 78.3% LOST TREBLE win chance 78.3% VOID TREBLE win chance 77.3% VOID TREBLE win chance 77.3% VOID TREBLE win chance 77.3% VOID TREBLE win chance 77.9% VOID