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UEFA Nations League

Andorra vs Gibraltar

Fri 13 Nov 21:45 1 day, 21 hours
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 94.4%
why
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 7/6 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.4%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
36.7%
Draw
26.0%
Away win
37.4%
calibrated 12 Nov 00:01
scoring fit λ 1.22 / μ 1.24
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 107 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
top Away win
37.4%
2.68x 41.1% n=107 risky
Draw
26.0%
3.85x 41.1% n=107 risky
Home win
36.7%
2.73x 41.1% n=107 risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Andorra 0W / 1D / 0L · momentum Andorra 0.67 ppg vs Gibraltar 2.0 ppg
Andorra · last 6
04 Oct · UEFA Nations League 1-0 L
30 Sep · Friendlies 3-0 L
27 Sep · UEFA Nations League 0-0 D
24 Sep · UEFA Nations League 1-2 L
07 Jun · Friendlies 3-0 L
04 Jun · Friendlies 2-0 W
Gibraltar · last 6
05 Oct · Friendlies 0-2 W
01 Oct · UEFA Nations League 1-1 D
27 Sep · UEFA Nations League 0-0 D
23 Sep · Friendlies 0-0 D
06 Jun · Friendlies 4-1 W
03 Jun · Friendlies 4-0 W
Head-to-head last 5
27 Sep 26 · UEFA Nations League Gibraltar 0-0 Andorra