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UEFA Nations League
Serbia vs Germany
Fri 13 Nov 21:45 1 day, 20 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.7%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 6/10 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.7%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
26.8%
Draw
23.1%
Away win
50.1%
calibrated 12 Nov 00:01
scoring fit λ 1.18 / μ 1.71
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 107 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
50.1%
|
2.0x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
| Draw |
23.1%
|
4.33x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
| Home win |
26.8%
|
3.73x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Serbia 0W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Serbia 0.0 ppg vs Germany 1.0 ppg
Serbia · last 6
04 Oct · UEFA Nations League
2-1
L
01 Oct · UEFA Nations League
2-0
L
27 Sep · UEFA Nations League
1-2
L
24 Sep · UEFA Nations League
1-2
L
05 Jun · Friendlies
5-1
L
31 May · Friendlies
3-0
L
Germany · last 6
04 Oct · UEFA Nations League
0-0
D
01 Oct · UEFA Nations League
2-0
W
27 Sep · UEFA Nations League
0-1
L
24 Sep · UEFA Nations League
1-1
D
29 Jun · World Cup
1-1
D
25 Jun · World Cup
2-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
01 Oct 26 · UEFA Nations League
Germany 2-0 Serbia