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UEFA Nations League

Turkey vs Belgium

Tomorrow 19:00 1 day, 16 hours
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 93.9%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 8/11 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.9%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
26.0%
Draw
23.7%
Away win
50.3%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:55
scoring fit λ 1.32 / μ 1.90
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 107 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
top Away win
50.3%
1.99x 41.1% n=107 risky
Draw
23.7%
4.22x 41.1% n=107 risky
Home win
26.0%
3.85x 41.1% n=107 risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Turkey 0.5 ppg vs Belgium 1.5 ppg
Turkey · last 6
05 Oct · UEFA Nations League 3-1 L
28 Sep · UEFA Nations League 1-4 L
25 Sep · UEFA Nations League 0-1 L
26 Jun · World Cup 3-2 W
20 Jun · World Cup 0-1 L
14 Jun · World Cup 2-0 L
Belgium · last 6
05 Oct · UEFA Nations League 4-1 L
28 Sep · UEFA Nations League 0-1 L
25 Sep · UEFA Nations League 0-2 W
10 Jul · World Cup 2-1 L
07 Jul · World Cup 1-4 W
01 Jul · World Cup 3-2 W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.