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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Zambia vs Burundi
Today 19:00 1 hour, 36 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.0%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 2/3 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.0%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
58.9%
Draw
23.7%
Away win
17.4%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 2.31 / μ 1.25
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
17.4%
|
5.75x | – | risky |
| Draw |
23.7%
|
4.22x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
58.9%
|
1.7x | – | lean |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Zambia 0.83 ppg vs Burundi 1.17 ppg
Zambia · last 6
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations…
2-0
W
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations…
3-1
L
01 Apr · Friendlies
5-0
L
29 Dec · Africa Cup of Nations
0-3
L
26 Dec · Africa Cup of Nations
0-0
D
22 Dec · Africa Cup of Nations
1-1
D
Burundi · last 6
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations…
2-2
D
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations…
1-0
L
26 May · Friendlies
5-0
L
31 Mar · Africa Cup of Nations…
4-0
W
27 Mar · Africa Cup of Nations…
0-4
W
14 Oct · World Cup - Qualifica…
2-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.