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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Mali vs Rwanda

Today 19:00 1 hour, 8 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 93.3%
why
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 3/2 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.3%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
73.1%
Draw
17.4%
Away win
9.6%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 2.04 / μ 0.55
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
9.6%
10.47x – risky
Draw
17.4%
5.75x – risky
top Home win
73.1%
1.37x – solid
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Mali 1.33 ppg vs Rwanda 2.0 ppg
Mali · last 6
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 0-1 W
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 3-1 W
04 Jun · Friendlies 2-0 L
31 Mar · Friendlies 0-0 D
09 Jan · Africa Cup of Nations 0-1 L
03 Jan · Africa Cup of Nations 1-1 D
Rwanda · last 6
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 1-2 W
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 3-1 W
30 Mar · FIFA Series 2-0 W
27 Mar · FIFA Series 4-0 W
14 Oct · World Cup - Qualifica… 3-0 L
10 Oct · World Cup - Qualifica… 0-1 L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.